Roof answers · White Mountains
Will my roof hold up to a strong El Niño winter in Show Low and Pinetop-Lakeside?
Short answer: A sound, well-kept roof usually does. But the last strong El Niño winter in the White Mountains, January 2010, collapsed the roof of Pinetop-Lakeside Fire Station No. 2 under heavy, wet snow. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter (2026-27). The time to find a weak spot is before the first big storm.
What happened last time
January 2010: the snow turned heavy.
In the January 18–23, 2010 storm series, heavy, wet snow loaded roofs along the Mogollon Rim. Snow changed to rain for several hours around 7,000 feet, which substantially increased the weight and density of the snow on roofs. The roof of Pinetop-Lakeside Fire Station Number 2 collapsed, several flat commercial roofs in Flagstaff went down, and the weight of the snow led to power outages for several days across the White Mountains. (NWS Flagstaff)
That winter sat at the peak of a strong El Niño: NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index read +1.50 for Nov–Jan 2009–10 and +1.47 for Dec–Feb 2010. (NOAA CPC)
This winter
2026–27 is forecast to be stronger.
On September 10, 2026 NOAA's Climate Prediction Center put an El Niño Advisory in effect, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event this fall and winter, and a 75% chance during October–December of a historic event stronger than any El Niño back to 1950. CPC is clear that impacts are more likely, not guaranteed. (NOAA CPC)
Before the first storm
What to have checked.
Flashing + penetrations
Chimneys, vents and skylights are where meltwater gets in first.
Shingles, tile, panels
Lifted, cracked or missing pieces let wind-driven snow and rain under the roof.
Gutters + eaves
Clear, firmly attached gutters and downspouts that drain away from the house. Ice at the eaves tests every hanger.
Imperial Construction LLC · AZ ROC #358524
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